Jameis Winston. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel)
INDIANAPOLIS — After two days at the NFL Combine, here are ten things to keep in mind as the NFL Draft approaches:
1. No argument “against” Marcus Mariota carries less weight than doubting his ability to operate within a pro-style offense. When’s the last time a very talented quarterback didn’t make it in the NFL because of the system he played in? Is there even one example? Quarterbacks are either good enough to play in the NFL or they’re not.
Furthermore, one of Mariota’s strengths is his football acumen and work ethic. If there’s anyone who can make a seamless transition from Oregon’s offense to an NFL offense, it’s Mariota. From this point on, let’s focus on his ability as a quarterback and not the system he played in at Oregon.
2. If Jameis Winston can go first overall despite his off-the-field issues, why can’t troubled wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham go right behind him? Strictly in terms of football talent, Green-Beckham is probably more of a sure-thing than Winston. The wide receiver is built like Calvin Johnson and has a history of making unbelievable grabs. Of course, his off the field issues are just as chronic as Winston’s, even if they aren’t as severe. Unlike Winston, who was enabled by Jimbo Fisher had the protection of the Tallahassee Police Department, Green-Beckham was flat-out dismissed by Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel. His interviews at the NFL Combine are just as important as Winston’s, and given his talent, he’ll likely convince at least one team to take him in the first round.
3. Until the pick is actually made, I’m not going to believe Lovie Smith will draft Winston. Most in Indianapolis believe it’s a foregone conclusion that Winston is headed to Tampa, but it’s relatively well known that one thing Smith doesn’t forgive is players who put their hands on a woman. That said, Brandon Marshall was added to the Bears while Smith was in Chicago, although he might not have had too much say on that addition because it was Phil Emery’s first year as general manager.
I was surprised Smith came out so strong Wednesday saying Winston “went through the justice system” and was cleared. You don’t have to be a private investigator to know that the way Winston’s case was handled was sketchy at best, and Smith is not an idiot — he knows all the details.
Maybe Smith has changed in the last couple of years since he left Chicago, and we are talking about a possible franchise quarterback here, but again, until the pick is actually made April 30, I’m not going to believe Winston is actually headed to the Bucs.
4. This might be the deepest running back class ever. The running backs at the Senior Bowl alone — Ameer Abdullah, David Cobb, David Johsnon, Jeremy Langford, Cameron Artis-Payne would make a pretty good draft class. Add in Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Jay Ajayi, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman and T.J. Yeldon, and you have a ridiculous group of tailbacks. There’s probably at least 20 draftable running backs this year.
5. The quarterback class is awful. In fact, it’s bad enough that you wonder if Winston and Mariota are being overvalued because there simply aren’t any other options. It was hard to watch the seven quarterbacks who showed up in Mobile for the Senior Bowl (it’s never a good thing when one of them — Auburn’s Nick Marshall — switches to cornerback before the first practice starts). At this point, I haven’t finished my work on UCLA’s Brett Hundley, but otherwise, Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson and Oregon State’s Sean Mannion are the only other quarterbacks I’d be interested in trying to develop and I wouldn’t take either before the fifth round.
6. With the Bears switching to a 3-4 defense, it’s going to be awfully hard to ignore addressing the front seven with the seventh overall pick. I wrote here about how you can run a 3-4 with smaller one-gap players, but longterm, it might be in the Bears’ best interest to take Washington nose tackle Danny Shelton. The nose tackle is the most important position in a 3-4 (much like the three-technique was so important in Lovie’s Tampa-2) and Shelton is the closest to a sure-thing as you’ll find at the position.
There are also a number of good edge rushers available early, including Florida’s Dante Fowler, Missouri’s Shane Ray, Nebraska’s Randy Gregory or Clemson’s Vic Beasley.
7. The plethora of options is why the Bears should make it seem like they would consider a quarterback. First off, if Mariota were to fall to No. 7, the Bears would have to think long and hard about taking him. But either way, if Mariota starts falling, the Bears’ pick could become very valuable. If we assume Winston is already off the board, that leaves Mariota as the only high-quality quarterback option available. And there are plenty of quarterback-desperate teams out there who might want to trade up. Ryan Pace knows it’s smart to keep his options open.
8. One of my biggest sleepers in this draft is Delaware tight end Nick Boyle. He’s a very good blocking tight end who also showed off his catching ability in Mobile last month. He’s more athletic than he’s given credit for and can split the seam. Frankly, he’d be a great No. 2 tight end in the Bears’ offense, which is a need this offseason.
9. You’ll always see a lot of cornerbacks drafted, but this year’s crop is particularly strong. A number of the seniors in Mobile looked small, but they also looked like they could play. The Bears could use a couple more corners and I could see them targeting one in the middle to late rounds.
10. On the flip side, the safety class isn’t particularly strong. I think Alabama’s Landon Collins is a little overrated and he’s more of a box safety, which isn’t what the Bears need. Ole Miss’ Cody Prewitt is a true centerfielder worth taking in the second round, but the best safety in the draft might end up being Samford’s Jaquiski Tartt, a big, physical player who looks like he can play both safety positions.
Adam Hoge covers the Chicago Bears for WGN Radio and WGNRadio.com. He also co-hosts The Beat, weekends on 720 WGN. Follow him on Twitter at @AdamHoge.
